Full NDC Synthesis Report: Some Progress, but Still a Big Concern – UNFCCC

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UN Climate Change News, 17 September 2021 – UN Climate Change today published a synthesis of climate action plans as communicated in countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The NDC Synthesis report indicates that while there is a clear trend that greenhouse gas emissions are being reduced over time, nations must urgently redouble their climate efforts if they are to prevent global temperature increases beyond the Paris Agreement’s goal of well below 2C – ideally 1.5C – by the end of the century.

The Synthesis Report was requested by Parties to the Paris Agreement to assist them in assessing the progress of climate action ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) this November in Glasgow, Scotland.

 

The report includes information from all 191 Parties to the Paris Agreement based on their latest NDCs available in the interim NDC registry as at 30 July 2021, including information from 86 updated or new NDCs submitted by 113 Parties. The new or updated NDCs cover about 59% of Parties to the Paris Agreement and account for about 49% of global GHG emissions.

 

For the group of 113 Parties with new or updated NDCs, greenhouse gas emissions are projected to decrease by 12% in 2030 compared to 2010. This is an important step towards the reductions identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which estimated that limiting global average temperature increases to 1.5C requires a reduction of CO2 emissions of 45% in 2030 or a 25% reduction by 2030 to limit warming to 2C.

 

Within the group of 113 Parties, 70 countries indicated carbon neutrality goals around the middle of the century. This goal could lead to even greater emissions reductions, of about 26% by 2030 compared to 2010.

 

“I congratulate all Parties that have submitted updated or new NDCs", said Patricia Espinosa, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change. “The synthesis shows that countries are making progress towards the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals. This means that the in-built mechanism set up by the Paris Agreement to allow for a gradual increase of ambition is working”, she added.

 

A sizeable number of NDCs from developing countries contain conditional commitments to reduce emissions, which can only be implemented with access to enhanced financial resources and other support. The report suggests that the full implementation of these components could allow for global emissions to peak by 2030. Regarding adaptation actions, which are also covered in many of the available NDCs, support is particularly critical.

 

“This shows just how central the issue of providing support to developing countries really is. We need to peak emissions as soon as possible before 2030 and support developing countries in building up climate resilience. The pledge to mobilize USD 100 billion annually by 2020 was key for enhancing climate action by developing countries. That commitment that was made in the UNFCCC process more than 10 years ago has not yet been fulfilled. It’s time to deliver – COP26 is the place to do so. Developing countries need this support in order to act as ambitiously as possible”, Ms. Espinosa urged.

 

The report also contains some worrying findings. The available NDCs of all 191 Parties taken together imply a sizable increase in global GHG emissions in 2030 compared to 2010, of about 16%. According to the latest IPCC findings, such an increase, unless actions are taken immediately, may lead to a temperature rise of about 2.7C by the end of the century.

 

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